2026 FIFA WORLD CUP — USA · CANADA · MEXICO
FULL TOURNAMENT BREAKDOWN
48 teams · 12 groups · Round-by-round survival probabilities from 10,000 simulations
ROUND-BY-ROUND SURVIVAL
Highest survival probability at each stage — aggregated from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, not a single run
GROUP STAGE21.4%
Spain
ROUND OF 3221.0%
France
ROUND OF 1610.8%
Argentina
QUARTER FINAL9.7%
England
SEMI FINAL9.5%
Germany
CHAMPION21.4%
Spain
GROUP OF DEATH
Groups ranked by average squad quality (EA FC ratings). The tightest groups — where strong teams risk elimination — are the real danger zones.
#1 GROUP OF DEATHGroup LAvg EA FC Rating: 72.9
EA FC
England
80.8
Croatia
76.1
Ghana
71.3
Panama
63.4
#2 MOST COMPETITIVEGroup KAvg EA FC Rating: 73.5
EA FC
Portugal
79.9
Colombia
74.3
DR Congo
71.2
Uzbekistan
68.7
#3 STRONGEST FAVORITEGroup IAvg EA FC Rating: 73.6
EA FC
France
83.2
Norway
74.8
Senegal
74.4
Iraq
62
ALL GROUPS BY AVG EA FC RATING
E75.2
I73.6
K73.5
F73
L72.9
C72.8
J72.1
D71.6
H71.5
B70.2
G68.8
A68.3
ALL 12 GROUPS
GROUP AELO avg 1832
Mexico
South Korea
Czech Republic
South Africa
GROUP BELO avg 1796
Canada
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
Switzerland
GROUP CELO avg 1819
Brazil
Morocco
Haiti
Scotland
GROUP DELO avg 1834
United States
Paraguay
Australia
Turkey
GROUP EELO avg 1793
Germany
Curaçao
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
GROUP FELO avg 1838
Netherlands
Japan
Sweden
Tunisia
GROUP GELO avg 1744
Belgium
Egypt
Iran
New Zealand
GROUP HELO avg 1873
Spain
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
GROUP IELO avg 1851
France
Senegal
Iraq
Norway
GROUP JELO avg 1820
Argentina
Algeria
Austria
Jordan
GROUP KELO avg 1788
Portugal
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
Colombia
GROUP LELO avg 1830
England
Croatia
Ghana
Panama
THE PREDICTION
WHO DOES THE AI THINK WINS?
For every match, the AI picks the team most likely to win — no luck, no upsets. This is what the data says should happen.
ANIMATION SPEED